On May 31, 2021, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out to further optimize the fertility policy and implement the policy that a couple can have three children and supporting measures. This is another major adjustment of China's fertility policy after the comprehensive two child policy in 2015. It is also an important policy response to China's population situation after the release of the seventh national census data in 2020. Since then, China has entered a multi child age. Why implement the three child birth policy instead of full liberalization? What social impact will the implementation of the three child policy bring? What supporting measures are needed to ensure the smooth implementation of the fertility policy?

The coexistence of scale pressure and structural challenges is the reason for the implementation of the three child policy

China's population is facing the severe situation of scale pressure and structural challenges“ According to the data of "seven universals", on the one hand, China's total population will reach 1.41 billion in 2020, the pressure of huge population scale still exists, the tight binding relationship between population, resources and environment still exists, and the differences in fertility wishes and behavior between regions and populations can not be ignored. On the other hand, the total fertility rate in 2020 was only 1.3, a record low. There were 264 million elderly people aged 60 and over, accounting for 18.7% of the total population. The number and proportion of the elderly population exceed that of children, and the inverted pyramid structure is prominent.

In such a demographic situation, the implementation of the comprehensive three child policy takes into account the scale pressure and structural challenges. It not only continues the past quantity control strategy, but also considers the reality that the pressure of population scale still exists; At the same time, the original quantitative restrictions were further relaxed, taking into account the possible negative impact of the continued downturn in fertility. The population policy at each stage is based on reality, taking into account history and focusing on the future.

The implementation of the three child policy will bring all-round social changes

Although only one more child has been added on the basis of the original two child policy, the socio-economic impact of the implementation of the three child policy is more far-reaching.

First, the three child policy has created conditions for the emergence of new dividends and the sustainability of medium - and long-term demographic dividends. The reason why the issue of "demographic dividend" has attracted much attention is that China's rapid economic growth in the past few decades has benefited from the opening of the demographic opportunity window, seizing the opportunity to create and enjoy the "demographic dividend". This "demographic dividend" mainly comes from the decline of the total dependency ratio caused by the decline of fertility during the demographic transition. With the gradual deepening of population aging, the proportion of children's population will gradually rise driven by the loose reform of fertility policy. Accordingly, the "demographic dividend" brought by population transformation will tend to disappear. When it reappears depends on the interactive relationship between the changes of population structure. At present, we need to develop talent bonus, old-age bonus and gender bonus as much as possible, and replace the bonus brought by the original population transformation with a new bonus.

Secondly, the implementation of the three child policy will bring certain social support pressure. In the medium and long term, the new population will be transformed into a new labor force, which will relatively alleviate social pressure. The problem of population structure is not an immediate problem. It takes about 20 years for this generation of newborns to turn into labor force. Under the premise of the relaxed reform of fertility policy, we need to make full preparations for the measures related to the relief of the pressure of the working age population, or some problems that may be brought about by the increase of the total dependency ratio.

Thirdly, the implementation of the three child policy makes the differentiation and diversification of family size more prominent. Before, many families had only one child, and the homogeneity of families was stronger. With the relaxation of the fertility policy, families show greater differences in scale because of the difference in the number of children, and the difference in the number of children highlights the differences in many aspects such as family birth motivation, parenting concept, economic strength, social resources and so on.

The implementation of the three child policy can not immediately alleviate the problem of population aging. The key to actively addressing the challenge of population aging lies in facing 260 million elderly people, giving full play to the positive role of the elderly in economic and social construction, and providing high-quality services for the elderly in need. In a sense, the aging problem is a structural problem, which can be solved by adjusting the structure; The elderly population problem is a people's livelihood problem, which needs to be solved systematically under the background of high-quality development.

Reducing the pressure of childbearing and parenting is a necessary condition to ensure the smooth implementation of childbearing policy

After the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, the proportion of two children among newborn babies has been increasing every year, and the total fertility rate of two children has also increased. However, the main reason why the total fertility rate still does not rise but decreases is the rapid decline of the one child fertility rate. The fertility anxiety of people of childbearing age, especially young people of childbearing age, leads to the overall low fertility level.

The first is economic concerns and difficulties, which are prominently reflected in the burden of "three education". The birth burden is mainly the cost of giving birth to a child, and the direct cost of giving birth to a child ranges from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan. Improving the maternal and infant health care and nursing service system and reducing relevant expenses according to the family economic situation can effectively reduce the birth burden. The burden of parenting varies from family to family, which is the concrete embodiment of family economic conditions and parents' expectations of childcare. It is necessary to improve the service level of eugenics and eugenics, develop the inclusive childcare service system, and appropriately reduce people's refinement and high expectations of childcare. The burden of education is relatively heavy, and a series of related costs such as extracurricular counseling, school selection fees and school district housing are related to it. It needs the support of national systematic policies to promote educational equity and the supply of high-quality educational resources and reduce family education expenditure. In addition, economic concerns are also reflected in the stability of employment and the sense of security of housing, so that it is possible to live and work in peace and contentment.

The second is the dilemma of women's work family conflict. Work family conflict is not only a difficult problem faced by professional women, but also an important reason for the current downturn in fertility willingness and behavior. The design of women's maternity leave time should not only consider the reality of family parenting, but also take into account the affordability of the unit, otherwise the loss of the unit will be reflected on women in the form of recruitment discrimination. The key is to reverse the awareness that parenting is a female responsibility. Childbearing is not only the responsibility of women, but also the responsibility of the family and the whole society. The time and economic costs related to childbearing need to be properly shared. When implementing the three child childbearing policy, the design of relevant policies and measures must implement the concept of gender equality.

The third is the social culture of late marriage and late childbirth. With the development of social economy and the popularization of education, late marriage and late childbearing have gradually become social practice, and the age of marriage and childbearing has been delayed. Especially in big cities, the average age of first marriage is close to 30 years old, and childbearing at an advanced age will bring many unnecessary health problems. Therefore, it is also very important to reshape the social marriage and childbearing culture, strengthen the education and guidance of marriage and love view and family view of marriageable youth, manage the bad social atmosphere such as marriage bad habits and sky high bride price gifts, create a social and cultural atmosphere of age-appropriate marriage and childbearing and fertility friendly, and eliminate young people's anxiety and fear of childbirth.

In the implementation of these relevant policies and supporting measures, there are two aspects that need to be paid attention to. First, the matching of supply and demand, we should pay attention to the heterogeneity of population demand, not only to meet the general demand, but also to meet the special needs of people in different life cycles. The formulation of measures should be designed from the perspective of users. Second, we should consider the feasibility and sustainability, especially the policies and measures related to fund distribution, holiday arrangement and so on. We should take into account the demands of various stakeholders to ensure that the policies and measures can be implemented and sustained for a long time.